# lgmt 444 wk2 Business & Finance homework help

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Problem Set 1

1. Based on the information shown below, develop forecasts for April to October using:

(a) A 3-period weighted moving average model (w1 = 0.5, w2 = 0.3, and w3 = 0.2).

(b) An exponential smoothing model with α = 0.35. Assume the forecast for March was 950.

 Month Actual Demand Jan 1050 Feb 975 Mar 1000 Apr 870 May 970 Jun 1220 Jul 1170 Aug 1150 Sep 1235 Oct 1275

2. Based on the information shown below, calculate MAD, MSE and tracking signal.

 Week Actual Demand Forecast 1 750 770 2 690 730 3 820 710 4 850 790 5 870 840 6 780 850 7 915 890 8 950 920

3. For the information given, rank the customers in terms of customer lifetime value.

Avg. Annual Sales Avg. Profit Margin Expected Lifetime

Customer 1: \$3,450 17 % 8 years

Customer 2: \$2,000 13 % 6 years

Customer 3: \$1,400 32 % 10 years

Use a discount rate of 6 percent and treat the average sales figures as annuities. Should any of these customers be fired?

1

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